If you’re looking for ways to boil the 2012 presidential race down to its simplest form, here’s one of the easiest: It’s nearly impossible to envision any way Barack Obama can win reelection next year if he loses Pennsylvania. No Keystone State, no second term. It really is that simple.

Right now, things are looking dicey for the president in Pennsylvania. Though national polls show the president enjoying a bump in his job approval rating because of Osama bin Laden’s killing, most experts don’t expect the boost to last. Moreover, Obama’s ratings on the critical issues in next year’s election – the economy, jobs, government spending, and the deficit – remain low and haven’t budged at all in the latest round of polling.

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