Wednesday, February 15, 2012

• Washington Times – Editorial:  EDITORIAL: Obama’s gas-price spike
• Morning Times – Colin Hogan:  Lt. Governor speaks to local Republicans
• Fox News – Jake Gibson:  In 2012 Race for Cash GOP Takes January
• Essential Public Radio – Jenelle Pifer:  David Freed Unopposed as GOP State Attorney General Candidate
• NBC – Mark Murray:  Priebus-led RNC rights the fundraising ship

Learn More About the Governor’s Budget Here

Tweetable

• RT @PAGOP .@eprpittsburgh has a great feature on #PAGOP Attorney General Candidate, Dave Freed! Check it out here: http://t.co/sOV6rsTe
• RT @JimGerlach Rather than settling for a sputtering recovery, Senate could vote on 27 pro-jobs bills passed by House http://bit.ly/AlYUsN

The Rundown

• Washington Times – Editorial:  EDITORIAL: Obama’s gas-price spike

Here we go again. Gasoline prices are rising rapidly and already have shattered the $4-a-gallon mark in California. Industry analysts say the all-time national average record of $4.11 could be shattered this summer. Some stations in Los Angeles are charging $4.93. Americans hired Barack Obama in 2008 partly in hope of finding relief from that summer’s pain at the pump. As the agony returns, voters could be primed by November to pull the lever for anybody but Barack.

The Golden State has the unwelcome distinction of having the nation’s highest gas prices, having reached $4.03 on Presidents Day, according the AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Though the national average was $3.56, the California price jumped 18.9 cents in just the past week. Alaska, Florida and traditionally pricey states in the Northeast are not far behind. The standard rule is that each penny increase sucks about $1 billion out of the economy, so the financial impact will be felt from coast to coast.

This latest gas-price jolt is predictable. President Obama has done much to impede the supply of petroleum products to consumers. Most particularly, he exploited the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as an excuse to clamp down on oil drilling in the Gulf and also along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

• Morning Times – Colin Hogan:  Lt. Governor speaks to local Republicans

Republican officials and candidates at all levels of government, including Lt. Governor Jim Cawley, dined with some of their top local supporters at the Towanda Country Club Sunday evening during the Bradford County Republican Committee’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner.

BCRC Chairman Eric Matthews was the first to speak before the dinner. In his welcoming address, Matthews praised President Lincoln’s accomplishments and challenged the committee to reflect on what it would have been like to have the “great emancipator” as president.

“Imagine the era. The challenges facing the country. The moral issue of slavery. The country falling apart with the secession of the southern slave states, and this all leading to a civil war,” said Matthews. “Yet, President Lincoln, standing on moral conviction, exercising phenomenal courage and executing unequivocal leadership was able to preserve the Union, abolish slavery and promote economic and financial modernization.”

Matthews went on to contrast Lincoln’s accomplishments with the policies of the Obama administration. He urged his fellow party members to “get behind our Republican candidates and carry them over the finish line.”

• Fox News – Jake Gibson:  In 2012 Race for Cash GOP Takes January

The Republican presidential hopefuls, when combined with the Republican National Committee, outraised the total fundraising of President Obama and the DNC in January.

When you add them all together the GOP presidential field and the RNC raised just north of $31.5 million in January of 2012. Meanwhile President Obama’s re-election campaign team, when combined with the DNC, raised just under $29.3 million over the same period of time.

It is worth noting that the Super PACs that are supporting the Republican presidential candidates such as, “Winning Our Future” which Backs Newt Gingrich and the pro-Romney group “Restore Our Future,” as well as groups supporting Rick Santorum and Ron Paul also raised more than $20 million when combined during the month of January.

The good news for the GOP is the fundraising shows there is enthusiasm out there among Republican voters and activists.

• Essential Public Radio – Jenelle Pifer:  David Freed Unopposed as GOP State Attorney General Candidate

Cumberland County District Attorney David Freed is the only Republican in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next state attorney general. His candidacy was made official last week when he filed more than 7,000 signatures, seven times what he needed to be on the ballot. The deadline to submit nominating petitions passed February 15.

Freed’s only Republican challenger, State Senator John Rafferty, ended his campaign in January after learning Governor Corbett planned to support Freed. Rafferty’s early exit allowed Freed to easily win the endorsement from the Pennsylvania GOP last month and sets him up to breeze through the April primary unopposed.

“It allows us to focus on the fall and the challenge we face. In Pennsylvania, Republicans are at a registration deficit. Democrats have about a million more voters than Republicans do. We need to be able to marshal our resources and for that reason, it will help our candidacy by letting us get out and get to know the voters,” Freed said.

The state attorney general’s office has gone to a Republican each time since it became an elected position in 1980. But Freed doesn’t plan to take anything for granted.

• NBC – Mark Murray:  Priebus-led RNC rights the fundraising ship

After his election as Republican National Committee chairman a year ago, Reince Priebus inherited an organization that was more than $20 million in debt and that had lost some of its biggest donors.

Additionally, Priebus got off to a slow start; as this author wrote back in July, the RNC under his watch actually raised less in the second quarter of 2011 than the Michael Steele-led RNC did in the second quarter of 2009.

But things have begun to turn around for Priebus on the fundraising front.

After raising just $37.3 million in the first half of 2011, the RNC raised nearly $51 million in the second half — actually outraising the Democratic National Committee over that same period of time. (However, the DNC outraised the RNC for all of 2011, about $110 million to $88 million.)

What’s more, the RNC has cut its debt in half — from more than $20 million in January to $11.8 million now.

And in a reversal of Steele’s biggest shortcoming — which was spending, not necessarily raising money — the RNC currently has more than $23 million in the bank as of Jan. 31, compared with the DNC’s more than $15 million.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

• Washington Post – Jennifer Rubin: Keep an eye on Toomey
• Morning Call – Colby Itkowitz: Analysis: Pennsylvania in play for presidential primary
• Daily Review – James Loewenstein: Commissioners McLinko, Miller endorse Welch
• Standard Speaker – Borys Krawczeniuk: Pennsylvania GOP primary likely relevant to presidential nomination

Monday, February 20, 2012

• Tribune-Democrat – Sandra Reabuck: GOP?Senate candidates visit region: 2 Cambria commissioners endorse Welch
• Tribune-Review – Ralph Reiland: Obama’s anti-jobs, anti-growth budget
• Tribune-Review – Tom Fontaine: Governor fires back at Democrats over transportation funding
• US News – RNC Chairman Reince Priebus: The Five Biggest Failures From President Obama’s Stimulus Law

Here we go again. Gasoline prices are rising rapidly and already have shattered the $4-a-gallon mark in California. Industry analysts say the all-time national average record of $4.11 could be shattered this summer. Some stations in Los Angeles are charging $4.93. Americans hired Barack Obama in 2008 partly in hope of finding relief from that summer’s pain at the pump. As the agony returns, voters could be primed by November to pull the lever for anybody but Barack.

The Golden State has the unwelcome distinction of having the nation’s highest gas prices, having reached $4.03 on Presidents Day, according the AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Though the national average was $3.56, the California price jumped 18.9 cents in just the past week. Alaska, Florida and traditionally pricey states in the Northeast are not far behind. The standard rule is that each penny increase sucks about $1 billion out of the economy, so the financial impact will be felt from coast to coast.

This latest gas-price jolt is predictable. President Obama has done much to impede the supply of petroleum products to consumers. Most particularly, he exploited the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as an excuse to clamp down on oil drilling in the Gulf and also along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Last week, the Republican-led House of Representatives passed an energy bill by a vote of 237-187 that would reverse Mr. Obama’s recent decision to block construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline. With his December announcement to delay a final ruling on the project until 2013, Mr. Obama, as a favor to his radical anti-business political base, passed up an opportunity to create an estimated 20,000 construction jobs. The House bill grants pipeline developer TransCanada a permit to proceed with the project and allows for expanded oil drilling in offshore reservoirs and in the protected Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

If Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid sticks to his usual script, he’ll prevent the upper chamber from even voting on the measure, saving the president from the embarrassment of vetoing an economy-boosting measure in an election year. Additionally, fellow Democratic senators can be expected to reiterate support for the president’s move to end tax breaks for the oil industry. Don’t be surprised if they also call for hearings to probe “price-fixing” by oil executives as the pain at the pump inevitably increases.

Mr. Obama would be wise to make a virtue of necessity and orchestrate Senate passage of the energy bill. By signing it, he could win back erstwhile supporters disillusioned with his economy-crippling leadership.

More likely, though, Mr. Obama will simply double down on class-warfare rhetoric about the oil industry needing to pay its “fair share” in hopes of diverting attention from the growing gas-price crunch. Promises of hope and change won’t smooth the campaign trail for the president this time around. If gas prices continue their upward trajectory until Election Day, voters are likely to look to a new leader to heal their wounded wallets.

Republican officials and candidates at all levels of government, including Lt. Governor Jim Cawley, dined with some of their top local supporters at the Towanda Country Club Sunday evening during the Bradford County Republican Committee’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner.

BCRC Chairman Eric Matthews was the first to speak before the dinner. In his welcoming address, Matthews praised President Lincoln’s accomplishments and challenged the committee to reflect on what it would have been like to have the “great emancipator” as president.

Committee member Joyce Grant is presented with the Ellen M. Turrell Award for her long-time service to the Republican Party by Lt. Gov. Cawley, left, Bradford County Commissioner Daryl Miller and wife Kay Miller, right. Colin Hogan/Morning Times“Imagine the era. The challenges facing the country. The moral issue of slavery. The country falling apart with the secession of the southern slave states, and this all leading to a civil war,” said Matthews. “Yet, President Lincoln, standing on moral conviction, exercising phenomenal courage and executing unequivocal leadership was able to preserve the Union, abolish slavery and promote economic and financial modernization.”

Matthews went on to contrast Lincoln’s accomplishments with the policies of the Obama administration. He urged his fellow party members to “get behind our Republican candidates and carry them over the finish line.”

After Matthews remarks, Rev. Thomas Blackall gave the invocation for the evening, which was then followed by remarks by the evening’s guest speaker, Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley.

Cawley spoke at length about the Corbett administration’s policy of fiscal discipline and budget-balancing methods that were implemented without raising taxes, saying that governments need to “live within their means.”

“We did it without raising taxes last year,” said Cawley. “And I’ll let you in a little secret. We’re going to do it without raising them this year either.”

Cawley said Pennsylvanians are struggling in this fragile economy, and are in a need of a more “common sense approach that has been lacking” from their public officials. He outlined tough decisions the state government needs to make, such as reducing the government’s work force, using block grants to empower counties to spend money more wisely and empowering the private sector to create jobs and put Pennsylvanians back to work.

In addition to his speech at dinner, Cawley spoke briefly on the recently passed legislation that empowers counties to impose impact fees on the natural gas industry. He said the law was designed so counties could “decide what they think is best” when it comes to imposing the fee, based on the industry’s local impact.

“What we felt was most important was that the fee be handled on a case-by-case basis, and that counties had the power to choose,” said Cawley. “We felt strongly against imposing a severance tax for that reason.”

Several Republican candidates for all levels of office were also in attendance, outlining their campaign and policy goals.

Dave Huffman, who will be vying for fellow Republican State Senator Gene Yaw’s seat in the commonwealth’s 23rd District, said he is “well aware of what it takes to run against an incumbent,” and is “used to the underdog role” in elections. Huffman previously ran his party’s nomination against Steven W. Cappelli for the seat representing Pennsylvania’s 83rd district.

Huffman said he feels his competitors fall short when it comes to being “intimately involved” with the inner-workings of their district.

“You’ll see me here in Bradford County. You’ll see me attending municipal meetings and getting intimately involved in the inner-workings throughout the district,” said Huffman.

Also in attendance was Attorney General candidate David Freed. Freed, who is in his 7th year as District Attorney in Cumberland County, said he has spent his entire career as a prosecutor. As Attorney General, Freed said he would work to “protect our children, protect our elders, protect our communities and protect our rights.” He spoke on the office’s need to “become smarter and more efficient” to “stay ahead of criminals.”

Freed said he has already gained support of the state party, as well as Bradford County District Attorney Dan Barrett.

At the federal level, candidate Steve Welch, who will be challenging U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D) for his seat in the senate, said he is running to stop Washington from “destroying the economy.” Welch, an entrepreneur and venture capitalist, has been the founder of multiple businesses in the biotechnology and software industries.

Welch said his qualifications for the office come from his career building up small businesses – which he said federal government needs to begin focusing on more. He called the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act a “devastating” piece of legislation which has made the country “less competitive,” and said he wants to see the federal government get out of “bed with big business” and focus on helping small businesses start hiring more.

Other Republican officials in attendance included State Reps. Tina Pickett and Matt Baker, State Sen. Gene Yaw and Congressman Tom Marino.

Cumberland County District Attorney David Freed is the only Republican in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next state attorney general. His candidacy was made official last week when he filed more than 7,000 signatures, seven times what he needed to be on the ballot. The deadline to submit nominating petitions passed February 15.

Freed’s only Republican challenger, State Senator John Rafferty, ended his campaign in January after learning Governor Corbett planned to support Freed. Rafferty’s early exit allowed Freed to easily win the endorsement from the Pennsylvania GOP last month and sets him up to breeze through the April primary unopposed.

“It allows us to focus on the fall and the challenge we face. In Pennsylvania, Republicans are at a registration deficit. Democrats have about a million more voters than Republicans do. We need to be able to marshal our resources and for that reason, it will help our candidacy by letting us get out and get to know the voters,” Freed said.

The state attorney general’s office has gone to a Republican each time since it became an elected position in 1980. But Freed doesn’t plan to take anything for granted.

“I have respect for both of the announced [Democratic] candidates, and I believe either one will present a significant challenge. I’ve been through numerous elections and it would be a grave mistake to underestimate anybody on the other side of an election,” Freed said.

The two Democrats seeking their party’s nomination in the April primary include former Lackawanna County prosecutor Kathleen Kane and former Congressman Patrick Murphy.

Mr. Freed is in his seventh year as Cumberland County District Attorney and is the son-in-law of of former state Attorney General Leroy Zimmerman, who has ties to Governor Corbett.

Pennsylvania Democratic spokesperson Mark Nicastre said Freed’s ties to the governor introduce conflicts of interest that will hurt him in November and boost chances of a Democratic win.

“David Freed is facing significant conflicts of interest, conflicts that call into question his fitness for the job and Governor Corbett’s judgment. The Attorney General’s main duty is to keep the governor in check. By endorsing Freed, Gov. Corbett is attempting to hand-select his future watchdog,” Nicastre said.

Freed said he’s running on the premise of his “boots-on-the-ground experience” in state courtrooms and law enforcement.

“I am the only candidate in this race who has been a chief law enforcement officer. I’ve been an elected district attorney. I’ve spent my career making the gut decisions that a chief prosecutor has to make. I believe that’s what sets me apart,” Freed said.

After his election as Republican National Committee chairman a year ago, Reince Priebus inherited an organization that was more than $20 million in debt and that had lost some of its biggest donors.

Additionally, Priebus got off to a slow start; as this author wrote back in July, the RNC under his watch actually raised less in the second quarter of 2011 than the Michael Steele-led RNC did in the second quarter of 2009.

But things have begun to turn around for Priebus on the fundraising front.

After raising just $37.3 million in the first half of 2011, the RNC raised nearly $51 million in the second half — actually outraising the Democratic National Committee over that same period of time. (However, the DNC outraised the RNC for all of 2011, about $110 million to $88 million.)

What’s more, the RNC has cut its debt in half — from more than $20 million in January to $11.8 million now.

And in a reversal of Steele’s biggest shortcoming — which was spending, not necessarily raising money — the RNC currently has more than $23 million in the bank as of Jan. 31, compared with the DNC’s more than $15 million.

RNC officials point to a few reasons for the turnaround. One, they’ve lured back some of the big donors who jumped ship during the Steele era. Two, they’ve been more effective (and cost-effective) in getting grassroots donors to contribute (raising $5.9 million out of its $10.4 million Jan. 2012 from those giving less than $200). And three, they’ve made a concerted effort to show RNC donors — both big and small — the fruits of their labors (like their web videos).

“They want to know we’re making the case [against President Obama and the Democrats] every day,” RNC Communications Director Sean Spicer tells First Read.

Below is a month-by-month look at the RNC vs. DNC fundraising since Jan. 2011:

Republican National Committee
Jan. 2011: $5.7 million
Feb. 2011: $5.3 million
March 2011: $7.2 million
April 2011: $6.1 million
May 2011: $6.2 million
June 2011: $6.8 million
July 2011: $6.1 million
Aug. 2011: $8.2 million
Sept. 2011: $9.3 million
Oct. 2011: $8.5 million
Nov. 2011: $7.2 million
Dec 2011: $11.6 million
Jan. 2012: $10.4 million

Democratic National Committee
Jan. 2011: $7.2 million
Feb. 2011: $7.1 million
March 2011: $6.7 million
April 2011: $14.0 million
May 2011: $10.5 million
June 2011: $12.2 million
July 2011: $6.9 million
Aug. 2011: $5.4 million
Sept. 2011: $14.7 million
Oct. 2011: $8.0 million
Nov. 2011: $6.7 million
Dec. 2011: $8.9 million
Jan. 2012: $13.3 million

The Republican presidential hopefuls, when combined with the Republican National Committee, outraised the total fundraising of President Obama and the DNC in January.

When you add them all together the GOP presidential field and the RNC raised just north of $31.5 million in January of 2012. Meanwhile President Obama’s re-election campaign team, when combined with the DNC, raised just under $29.3 million over the same period of time.

It is worth noting that the Super PACs that are supporting the Republican presidential candidates such as, “Winning Our Future” which Backs Newt Gingrich and the pro-Romney group “Restore Our Future,” as well as groups supporting Rick Santorum and Ron Paul also raised more than $20 million when combined during the month of January.

The good news for the GOP is the fundraising shows there is enthusiasm out there among Republican voters and activists. However, the bad news is the GOP presidential candidates are spending just about all of their money tearing each other down while President Obama’s team saves cash for the general election battle in the fall.

The RNC looks at January as a victory, the $10.4 million raised leaves the committee with $23.4 million cash on hand and $11.8 million in debt. RNC officials point out that when they took over from the Michael Steele administration they were facing a $24 million mountain of debt.

The Democratic National Committee was not quite as successful at fundraising over the same period, hauling in $6.1 million in January, which leaves the DNC 15.7million in cash on hand. However the committee also has only $6 million in debt.

The Republican senator from Pennsylvania — the current one — may not be a well known as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), but in his own way he is a rising star.

He voted no on the payroll tax cut extension, which, if you are serious about properly funding Social Security and limiting the debt, was the principled position for conservatives. The Pittsburgh Gazette reports: “Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, meanwhile, said the vote amounted to a failure to put government on a responsible fiscal path. He said the payroll tax cut won’t stimulate economic growth, and that the funding sources . . . identified by the conference committee should be used to pay down the deficit, not fund more spending.” Precisely so.

Today he also signed onto a bipartisan letter to President Obama. Unlike the wishy-washy Senate resolution, this one warns the president that “the Iranian government will seek to buy time or otherwise dilute the focus of our diplomacy through proposals that either suspend or reverse the current momentum of the pressure track in exchange for partial measures by the Iranians that fail to address the totality of their nuclear program.” The letter explains, “Such tactical maneuverings are a dangerous distraction and should not be tolerated. For instance, we would strongly oppose any proposal that caps or limits sanctions against the Iranian regime in exchange for anything less than full, verifiable, and sustained suspension of all enrichment activities, including both 3 percent and 20 percent enrichment. The time for confidence-building measures is over.”

He also put forth a conservative-friendly tax proposal in the supercommittee that raised revenue but lowered rates. In other words, he’s a principled dealmaker.

If only Republicans had all gotten behind him in 2004 instead of re-electing Sen. Arlen Specter (D/R/D-Pa.) who eventually provided the 60th vote for Obamacare. Ah, well, at least he is there now.

So why not put him on the vice presidential nominee list (Rick Santorum’s a Virginia resident, right?)? Others have the same thought. One blogger writes: “He can excite fiscal conservatives without turning off social conservatives.” Frankly, he is precisely what the GOP needs: a strong fiscal and foreign policy with strong pro-life beliefs, but the ability to win over suburban and moderate voters.

No Republican presidential candidate — not even Mitt Romney — can amass enough delegates to secure the nomination in the next two months.

In other words, when Pennsylvanians vote in the April 24 primary, the state will be in play.

In 2008, Pennsylvania was the epicenter of the political universe as then-candidate Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battled in a long, drawn-out Democratic primary that continued beyond Pennsylvania and stretched into early June.

Now it’s the Republicans’ turn. And it’s more than likely that at least Romney and Santorum will carve a campaign trail through Pennsylvania this spring.

A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination.

The Republican National Committee only counts delegates who must vote for a certain candidate. By the RNC’s measure, Romney leads Santorum 73-3. Many media outlets rely on The Associated Press, which blends both committed and non-committed delegates. By AP’s count, Romney leads Santorum 105-71.

By either measure, even after delegate-rich Super Tuesday on March 6, the race will be far from over mathematically.

But here’s where it gets tricky.

Unlike the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania four years ago, in the Republican primary in Pennsylvania no delegates will be awarded. It is what some call a beauty contest. On primary day GOP voters elect delegates who can support any candidate they’d like at the Republican National Convention in August.

“I’ll be surprised if they campaign much here,” state GOP Chairman Rob Gleason said.

Still, there certainly are bragging rights attached to winning one of the nation’s largest battleground states. Money and momentum flow to winners each step of the way.

“I think the Romney people would definitely want to win the state, Santorum would want to win for psychological reasons, Gingrich and [Ron] Paul from where we sit today would be more concerned about the delegates,” said Charlie Gerow, a veteran Republican consultant in Harrisburg who is heading up Newt Gingrich’s Pennsylvania team.

“If [Romney] loses Pennsylvania, it means that the establishment in the Northeast is not where it should be for him,” Gerow said. “He is the establishment candidate and if he can’t win the establishment state, his story starts to come apart.”

The most recent Pennsylvania poll — completed the day before Santorum won three states in one day — found Romney and the former Pennsylvania senator in a statistical dead heat with 29 percent and 30 percent, respectively. The survey was conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.

The Santorum campaign knows just how good a Pennsylvania win would be for Santorum’s credibility — even if it’s slightly offset by his enjoying home-field advantage.

The Republicans in Pennsylvania, especially those in the Lehigh Valley and the Philadelphia suburbs, tend to be more moderate and representative of the types of swing voters the eventual nominee will need to win over in a general election, said G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

The mastermind behind Santorum’s presidential run, consultant John Brabender, said he foresees Pennsylvania having a “big role” in the political primary decision making.

“I think it’s huge,” he said. “Rick Santorum was in five really tough races and won four [in Pennsylvania]. We’d like to make it five out of six.”

The Republican Bradford County commissioners, Doug McLinko and Daryl Miller, endorsed businessman Steve Welch for the U.S. Senate on Monday.

Welch is one of five Republican candidates who are running for the Senate seat currently held by Bob Casey.

McLinko, Miller and Bradford County Republican Party Chairman Eric Matthews all endorsed Welch at a press conference on Monday in front of the Bradford County Courthouse.

“I think he’ll be a good candidate to take on Casey,” Miller said in an interview. “He (Welch) has certainly got a business background. He knows what it takes to actually create jobs. He is a young, energetic individual who I believe will carry the ideals of this area to the federal level.”

Unlike Welch, President Obama and Casey “believe the way to prosperity is to print more money and create more debt, and burden future generations with debt,” Miller said.

McLinko said he was “excited” to endorse Welch.

Welch “isn’t a conservative because he says he is. He is a conservative because of what he has done and how he has lived his life,” McLinko said.

Welch is “not a career politician,” Matthews said. “He is a businessman who knows how to create jobs.”

In fact, Welch has made a business out of creating jobs through the company he owns, Dreamit Ventures, which launches technology companies, Matthews said.

While Matthews has endorsed Welch, the Bradford County Republican Committee itself has not made any endorsements in the race.

Unless the Republican presidential race radically changes, Pennsylvania is likely to have a presidential primary election that matters for the second presidential election in a row.

The state will not see all the attention that then Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton showered on Democratic voters in 2008, but only the emergence of a dominant candidate before then will prevent Pennsylvania from hosting lots of pre-primary visits by the top Republican candidates.

“It now looks like that Pennsylvania will be important,” said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College.

The way the Republican race is unfolding, coupled with the Republican nominating schedule, the nature of delegate selection and Pennsylvania’s sheer size, seem ready to ensure the state’s relevance.

“As someone who is close to the Santorum camp and has friends in the Romney camp, I can tell you both are planning on Pennsylvania being competitive,” said Vince Galko, a political consultant who used to work for Santorum.

The primary is set for April 24, barring some unforeseen change in the date caused by the ongoing battle over the reapportionment of state House and Senate districts.

The primary/caucus schedule is a main reason Pennsylvanians could get to see the Republican presidential candidates a lot in the commonwealth.

In 2008, Obama and Clinton had six weeks free after the Mississippi primary to campaign in Pennsylvania whose April 22 primary was the only one that day. They criss-crossed the state again and again, turning it into a mini-Iowa.

Republicans won’t be here that long, but the last primaries before Pennsylvania’s are April 3, when Republicans weigh in during primaries in Texas, Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia. That potentially means three weeks of campaigning by the candidates in Pennsylvania and four other states with primaries scheduled the same day – New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware.

The two biggest prizes in that bunch are New York, with 95 delegates, and Pennsylvania with 72. Rick Santorum is the state’s former U.S. senator, which might discourage other candidates from campaigning as much here, but 72 delegates is still an attractive target.

Of course, the outcome of the overall race must still be in doubt for Pennsylvania to really have a say.

If neither Santorum, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich nor Rep. Ron Paul dominate in collecting delegates in the 30 primaries and caucuses coming up before April 24, the chances of Pennsylvania remaining important increase sharply.

So far, no candidate has pulled away.

As of Monday, eight states had held primaries or caucuses, and Romney had 99 delegates of the 1,144 necessary to earn the nomination, Santorum, 47 delegates, Gingrich, 32 delegates, and Paul, 20 delegates, according to the RealClearPolitics website, which tracks national politics.

Because he has a lot more money than his opponents, Romney is still considered by many as the long-term favorite to win the nomination because he can spend heavily to campaign in every state and win the bulk of the delegates before Pennsylvania.

If his financial advantage finally kicks in for real, he could dominate the next six weeks, but if the Republican presidential race has proved anything, momentum swings are routine.

“Remember what happened in 2008 (in the Democratic race). Pennsylvania mattered when there were only two candidates,” Madonna said.

For now, four Republican candidates remain viable.

It would be almost impossible for anyone to officially wrap up the race by Pennsylvania. Romney is closest, needing 1,045 delegates to get to 1,144. The primaries and caucuses coming up before Pennsylvania have 1,197 delegates to award, meaning even Romney would have to win almost all of them to wrap things up.

While no candidate is likely to get to 1,144 before Pennsylvania, one candidate could earn a delegate lead so large that the other candidates would have little chance of winning the nomination.

The possibility of anyone conceding is reduced because more than half the 30 primaries or caucuses award delegates are based on a candidate’s proportion of the overall vote in a state or territory. Only three states plus Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia have winner-take-all primaries or caucuses. Most of the other states have non-binding caucuses.

That means someone can lose a state and still pick up delegates, precisely what happened in 2008 on the Democratic side. Obama lost many states overall, but kept adding delegates in states he lost. Indeed, Clinton won Pennsylvania by 9 percentage points, but only wound up with 12 more delegates here than Obama (85 to 73).

A couple of other factors could reduce or limit the attention paid to Pennsylvania by the Republican candidates.

If Santorum is still in the running, polls here could show him so far ahead in Pennsylvania, that no one else bothers showing up.

Also, Pennsylvania Republicans elect 54 of their 72 delegates directly by voting in the primary, not proportionally. Delegate candidates appear on the primary ballot. Their allegiances to one presidential candidate or another are not listed on the ballot, but presidential campaigns recruit candidates to run for delegate.

Presumably, Romney, because of his superior campaign organization, and Santorum, because of his past grass-roots connections, could have fuller slates of delegate candidates in Pennsylvania than either Paul or Gingrich.

Someone with a smaller delegate slate might choose to skip the state or devote more time to the primaries in New York, Connecticut or Rhode Island where at least some delegates are award proportionally. Delaware is winner take all.

In any case, Pennsylvania is likely still to matter in the Republican nominating process at least somewhat because with 72 delegates it could add significantly to someone’s delegate count at a crucial moment even if the amount of campaigning by candidates here is limited by a huge polling lead or lack of a full delegate slate.

Galko said the Michigan primary, coming up next Tuesday, and Super Tuesday, March 6, when 10 states hold primaries or caucuses, are key.

“If Rick wins Michigan, it’s really going to extend this thing,” he said.

If no one dominates on Super Tuesday, it’s here they come Pennsylvania.