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It's the Democrats' House, but the map belongs to the GOP

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Mark Greenbaum
Salon

Republicans have a secret weapon in their bid to win back control of the House of Representatives this fall: low-hanging fruit.

An astounding number of Democrats – 68, to be exact – currently represent districts that are “naturally” Republican, while only eight Republicans hail from Democratic districts. With the national climate already favoring them – thanks to surging unemployment and popular frustration with the ruling Democrats – this imbalance creates the potential for an extra-large GOP wave in November.

These numbers are based on the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index, an excellent barometer of a congressional district’s partisan leanings. A district’s PVI is derived by comparing the performance of presidential candidates nationally with how they do in each district. So if a district has a PVI of D+4, for instance, it means that the Democratic presidential candidate performed 4 points above his national average in the last two cycles.

Of the 68 Democrats who represent GOP-friendly districts, a whopping 43 are from districts where the PVI is R+5 or greater. Much of this imbalance can be chalked up to the 2006 and 2008 elections, when Democrats harnessed the nation’s profound Bush fatigue to make impressive incursions into GOP territory.


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    Featured Republican
    Bob KilbanksBob Kilbanks

    For years, Northampton County State Party member Bob Kilbanks has worked hard to ensure the success of our statewide, Congressional and local candidates. In recent months, he has also made it a priority to aggressively build and strengthen the Northampton County GOP’s grassroots network in anticipation of this November.

    In honor of his continued hard work on behalf of our Party, we are proud to announce Northampton County Party member Bob Kilbanks as our August Republican of the Month.


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