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GOP Insiders See More Midterm Opportunities

Friday, March 05, 2010

James A. Barnes
National Journal: Hotline

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell is still likely to head the minority party in the next Congress, but he could have a lot of reinforcements, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

When asked how many Senate seats the Dems would gain or lose in the upcoming midterm elections, 98 Dem Insiders said on average that the loss would be 5 seats. GOP Insiders were even more bullish: the 97 respondents predicted the average loss would be 7 seats, which would bring the GOP total to 48, up from 41.

60% of the Dem Insiders surveyed said the party would lose at least 5 seats. While 51% of GOP Insiders said that the Dem losses would be at least 7 seats, only 4% thought that the party would gain at least 10 seats, giving them outright control of the upper chamber.

GOP Insiders are hopeful that their count will rise in part because of their recruiting prospects and a generally favorable political climate that may present opportunities even in blue states. For example, speculation that ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) might take on Sen. Russell Feingold (D-WI) prompted some GOP Insiders to up their estimates of potential gains. Added one GOP Insider, referring to the race in CA: "When Barbara Boxer has to look over her shoulder, you know it's going to be a bad year for Democrats."


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    Bob KilbanksBob Kilbanks

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